Correlation does not imply causality. The logic is even worse when your supposed correlation is false. Today, I got an email from a friend about gun control; the email was one of those typical internet forwards. This one was about how crime rates in Australia went up after the ban (and subsequent buyback) of many types of firearms. A brief look at snopes turned up a thorough rebuttal. A simple investigation of primary sources at the Australian Institute of Criminology (AIC) shows how the data in the email was cherry-picked.
As an example, the email says: “Australia-wide, homicides are up 3.2 percent”. This isn’t a big deal if the population went up by 3% as well. Good statistical analysis would look at homicide rate, typically per 100,000 people. Longer term trends (beyond one year change) are more important. AIC has a good graph showing the long term change in homicide rates here. Global warming denialists make very similar “arguments“.
The true rebuttal to gun control activists makes use of counter-cases. The pro-gun control crowd justifies their stance by saying that removing guns will lower crime. Is it true? Many cities in the U.S. that have strict gun control (look at D.C. for example) have extremely high crime rates. There are enough examples for each side to cherry-pick from to make their argument, but taken as a whole, can we infer anything? Yes.
What these contradictory sets of data do prove is that crime seems at least somewhat independent of gun control. That is, anti-correlation disproves causality. This is the same argument people like Dawkins (and I agree with him) against those who argue that religion makes people better. There are many non-religious people (and societies, such as Western Europe) that are irreligious and are still “civilized”. The argument for causation falls flat. Crime rates are dominated by entirely different factors and it’s not easy to find causal links in societal problems due to the massive number of variables (unless you happen to have a Ph.D. in psychohistory).
What all this means is that gun control activists’ rationale for depriving innocent people of their liberty is completely specious and wrong; unfortunately it also means that many people opposed to gun control use equally bad arguments. The bottom line is that you need a very, very, very damn good reason and rock-solid data before you even start thinking about limiting freedom. Maybe not even then.
Even if, by “…who argue that religion makes people better…”, you meant, “…makes people civilized…”, Dawkins’ argument is still invalid. (I haven’t seen it outside of this post.) There may be more than one path to a civilized society. However, the claim that “religion is the only path to a civilized society” is disproved by the irreligious, civilized society. Perhaps that is what you meant to say.
Yes, that is the point – and that is Dawkins’ argument. I left out “use” in the following statement:
“This is the same argument people like Dawkins [use] against those who argue that religion makes people better”
But that seems clear to me otherwise.
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