I’ve said it once, I’m sure I’ll be saying it the rest of my life. Correlation does not imply causality. Why is it so hard for people to understand this? Here’s a great example in sports: The home team wins 67% of playoff games in the NBA. The author writes this as if it’s a huge revelation and this is an indicator of how strong home field advantage is.
Gah! No — these two (home field advantage and winning) are correlated, but that doesn’t mean one causes the other. Home field advantage doesn’t cause winning. Instead, home field advantage and winning are caused by a third thing — namely, actually being better than the other team. A team has home court advantage if they performed better over the course of the regular season, and are thus also more likely to win. There’s nothing mystical about it. Yes, home court is an advantage, but it shouldn’t at all be surprising or warrant a two page “investigation” that the home court correlation is more pronounced in the playoffs.
The “Home Court Advantage” is something I’ve long pondered about, and never really figured out. While the better team certainly has the home court advantage in the playoffs, there is no question that in general teams play better at home than away regardless of their opponent. It is enigmatic to me as to why this is.
On another note, I am a college student in Texas. I read your comment on Ed Brayton’s blog about “rooting out” bad biology teachers in Texas. It’s something I’ve long been wanting to do, but never really known how or where to start. I’d be interested in reading about your ideas.
Hi, interest post. I’ll write you later about few questions!
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